AGP Executive Report

Trade: Moldova’s goods deficit widened to €4.42 billion in January–August 2026. Exports rose 9.3% to €2.24 billion, but imports reached €6.66 billion; August exports fell year on year while the monthly deficit climbed to €549 million. Digital Economy: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said the new Moldova AI Hub could help modernize public services and spur growth, with pilot projects potentially covering administration and subsidy distribution. Business Support: Eight companies will receive grants and advice to create family-friendly workplaces. A separate SME reform would raise turnover and asset limits, bringing 147 more firms into the category and widening access to support. Agriculture: Japan-backed financing of up to $55 million will help farmers buy machinery, irrigation and storage equipment. The EBRD is also providing €102.9 million for irrigation infrastructure. EU Integration: Moldova opened negotiations on two more accession clusters, covering the single market and competitiveness—areas central to closer economic integration and future investment.

EU Market Access: Moldova opened 17 accession chapters covering the internal market and competitiveness, bringing 24 of 33 into negotiations. The reforms could ease hiring and trade and attract investment, but businesses will need predictable rules and stronger institutions. SME Support: A draft law would raise the turnover ceiling for medium-sized businesses from €25 million to €50 million and the asset limit from €21.5 million to €43 million, bringing 147 more firms into the support system. Agriculture: Japan-backed financing of up to $55 million will let farmers buy machinery and irrigation equipment on favorable terms; farmers repay the loans at 3.2% interest. Separately, an EBRD loan of €102.9 million will fund irrigation upgrades. Energy Investment: Parliament is preparing to designate the Strășeni–Gutinaș power line and substation works as nationally important, speeding permits and land acquisition. The project has a $130 million U.S. financing commitment. Skills and Efficiency: An €80 million program will renovate 47 buildings at 25 vocational institutions, while a proposed $52 million World Bank-backed project aims to cut energy use in public buildings by at least 20%. Small Businesses: Proposed food-safety changes would let some low-risk producers start after notifying the agency, easing the path for home-based food sales.

EU Integration: Moldova opened negotiations on two clusters covering 17 chapters, bringing 24 of 33 into talks. The prime minister says the country is racing to conclude negotiations by 2028; reforms could give businesses easier access to the EU market and attract investment. Energy: A $130 million US-backed power line linking Moldova with Romania is advancing, with officials saying it will diversify electricity supplies and reduce vulnerabilities. Chisinau Investment: Nearly five billion lei is allocated to the capital in 2026, including funding for schools, roads and suburban infrastructure. Business Hub: Moldexpo wants to become a regional exhibition and business park, but the project needs tens of millions of euros and has no confirmed funding yet. Agriculture: The EBRD is providing €102.9 million for irrigation infrastructure.

Black Sea Trade: A drone-hit, empty cargo ship bound for Moldova’s Giurgiulești port was among two vessels attacked near Bulgaria, adding to risks for regional shipping. EU Market Access: Moldova opened negotiations on the EU’s Internal Market and Competitiveness clusters, bringing 24 of 33 chapters into talks. EU officials say reforms could attract investment and create jobs; the remaining two clusters are technically ready to open. Growth and Pay: The IMF cut its 2027 growth forecast for Moldova to 2.3%. The government projects an average real-sector salary of 18,800 lei next year, up from 17,400 lei in 2026. Farm Investment: The EBRD is providing €102.9 million for irrigation upgrades, including systems serving about 6,900 hectares, with EU grants and Growth Plan support. Business Risks: Police dismantled five alleged crypto-fraud call centers in Chișinău and detained eight people; investigators say the operation targeted investors in the US and Canada.

EU Accession: Moldova opened talks on 17 more chapters covering the internal market and competitiveness, bringing 24 of 33 chapters into negotiations. The next test is implementing reforms that could widen market access and investment opportunities for businesses. Growth Outlook: The IMF cut its 2027 growth forecast to 2.3% from 3.2% and expects inflation to reach 9%, keeping pressure on households and companies. Agriculture Investment: A €102.9 million EBRD loan will help modernize irrigation in three districts, serving about 6,900 hectares and 300 farmers. Trade Disruption: A drone-struck cargo ship bound for Giurgiulești was due to load Moldovan sunflower seeds for export; the crew was evacuated, underscoring growing risks to Black Sea shipping. Transnistrian Economy: Exports from the region fell 17% in the first eight months of 2026, while industrial output was 25% below 2024 levels.

EU Accession: All 27 EU members have agreed to advance Moldova’s talks on the single market and competitiveness. The clusters cover trade, capital and labor movement, taxation, education and research; formal negotiations are scheduled to open in Luxembourg today. Workforce Investment: An €80 million project will modernize 25 vocational schools and colleges, renovating 47 buildings to train workers for sectors including construction, energy, agriculture and food production. Transnistrian Economy: Exports from the breakaway region fell 17% in the first eight months of 2026, while industrial output was 25% below 2024 levels, deepening pressure on businesses. Trade Route Risks: A drone attack damaged a cargo ship sailing toward Giurgiulești with cargo intended for Moldova, highlighting growing security risks to Black Sea commerce.

EU Accession: All 27 EU members have approved opening talks with Moldova on the Internal Market and Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth clusters, with formal negotiations scheduled for October 13 — a step toward closer integration for Moldovan businesses. Workforce Investment: An €80 million project will renovate 47 buildings at 25 vocational institutions, training more than 20,000 students for in-demand jobs. Construction: Companies have urged the government to speed up permits and unblock stalled real-estate projects, some worth hundreds of millions of lei. Energy: Moldova may negotiate a three-to-five-year gas supply deal with Ukraine to secure volumes and potentially lower transport costs. Agriculture: Moldovan fruit exporters say Europe and Gulf states are now key markets, with sales also growing in India and Israel; agricultural technology will be showcased at Moldagrotech and Farmer in Chișinău this week. Transnistrian Trade: Chişinău’s move to apply VAT and excise duties to some imports from the region is prompting protests in Tiraspol as Moldova seeks to apply uniform tax rules.

Agriculture: Farmers are urging the government to extend grain and oilseed import licensing through year-end, warning that Black Sea export bottlenecks are depressing Ukrainian prices and could undercut Moldovan growers after the current rules expire on October 31. Energy: Moldova plans to discuss long-term gas purchases from Ukraine, which could lower transport costs; potential export volumes are about 500 million cubic metres. The government will also continue winter energy compensation, potentially reaching more households as prices rise. Dairy: Milk output has nearly tripled in five years to 64,000 tonnes, but domestic production still covers only about 60% of demand. The government wants more investment in efficient farms and local processing. Investment and logistics: President Maia Sandu urged U.S. companies to invest in energy, infrastructure, technology and logistics, while U.S. funding is supporting the Strășeni–Gutinaș power line. Moldova’s railway plans a 15% freight-tariff increase from November 1.

Energy Supply: Moldova is exploring long-term gas purchases from Ukraine, where officials estimate exportable volumes near 500 million cubic metres—roughly the country’s annual regulated-market needs. Longer contracts and lower transport costs could make supplies cheaper. Household Support: Energy compensation will continue this winter, with assistance expected to reach about as many as last year’s 620,000 households, or more, though eligibility rules will tighten. Dairy Industry: Domestic milk production has nearly tripled in five years to 64,000 tonnes, but still covers only about 60% of demand. The government says it wants to boost farm productivity and local processing. Freight Costs: Moldova’s railway will raise cargo tariffs by 15% from November 1, citing higher oil-product costs; grain shipments will remain a priority.

Household Energy: More than 3,300 Moldovan families used EU-backed vouchers to replace old appliances with energy-efficient refrigerators and washing machines, with support covering up to 70% of the cost. Freight Costs: Moldova’s railway will raise freight tariffs by 15% from November 1, citing higher fuel costs; grain shipments will remain a priority. Investment: President Maia Sandu urged U.S. companies to invest in Moldova’s energy, infrastructure, technology and logistics sectors, highlighting the country’s potential role in Ukraine’s reconstruction. EU Funding: The European Commission released €157 million under Moldova’s Growth Plan, despite two reform targets going unmet. Trade and Pay: Moldova’s trade with Turkey reached $638.7 million, while unions and employers agreed to raise the minimum wage to 7,600 lei in 2027.

Business Investment: Bulgaria’s business chamber says some production from Sumitomo Electric’s downsized Bulgarian operations has shifted to Moldova, highlighting the country’s appeal as costs rise elsewhere. Transport Costs: Moldova’s railway will raise freight tariffs 15% from November 1, citing higher oil-product costs, while keeping grain shipments a priority. Energy and Investment: President Maia Sandu urged U.S. firms to invest in Moldova’s energy, infrastructure, technology and logistics sectors; a U.S.-funded $130 million power line to Romania is planned. EU Funding: Moldova received €157 million under its Growth Plan and is preparing negotiating positions for two more EU accession clusters, with reforms and investment central to the process. Household Income: Unions and employers agreed to raise the minimum wage to 7,600 lei by 2027.

Rail Freight: Moldova’s railway will raise freight tariffs 15% from November 1, citing higher fuel costs; grain shipments remain a priority. Investment: President Maia Sandu urged more U.S. investment in energy, infrastructure, technology and logistics, while $130 million in U.S. funding will support a new power link with Romania. EU Funding: Moldova was invited to present positions on two more accession clusters, and the EU has released €157 million under its Growth Plan after reform steps. Business Climate: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan told business leaders the government aims to make Moldova a leading destination for entrepreneurs and a platform for access to regional markets. Trade and Wages: Moldova-Turkey trade has reached $638.7 million, while the minimum wage is set to rise to 7,600 lei in 2027.

Rail Freight: Moldova Railways will raise freight tariffs by 15% from November 1, citing higher oil-product costs. The increase covers domestic, export, import and transit shipments, while grain transport remains a priority. Investment: President Maia Sandu urged U.S. companies to invest in Moldova’s energy, infrastructure, technology and logistics sectors, pitching the country as a potential base for firms involved in Ukraine’s reconstruction. Business Climate: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan told business leaders the government wants Moldova to become Europe’s most entrepreneur-friendly country and a platform for reaching regional markets. EU Funding: The EU says its €1.9 billion Growth Plan is tied to reforms. Moldova recently received €157 million after meeting 18 of 20 requirements; the next funding check, due in December, will involve 40 steps. Industrial Development: Parliament approved a proposal allowing public institutions to establish industrial parks, opening another route to support business and investment.

Digital Market: Fixed broadband connections in Moldova rose nearly 6% and mobile data traffic jumped 17% in the second quarter, signaling stronger demand for connectivity. Trade Logistics: Two Chisinau customs posts will operate on weekends through December, giving businesses more flexibility to schedule clearance and transport. EU Funding: Moldova’s €1.9 billion Growth Plan funding depends on verified reforms. The country recently received €157 million after completing 18 of 20 steps; the next review, due in December, covers 40 more demanding measures. The EU ambassador urged Moldova to improve its ability to turn funding into investment. Business Framework: Parliament approved rules allowing public institutions to establish industrial parks and aligned securities depository legislation with EU standards. State railway operator CFM is also set to become a wholly state-owned company by year-end. Wine Industry: National Wine Day featured 114 wineries, attracted visitors from more than 70 countries and recorded 116,880 tastings, showcasing a key export sector.

Financial Rules: Parliament aligned securities-depository legislation with EU rules, opening the way for EU-authorized providers to operate in Moldova. It also advanced a framework for cross-border recovery of tax claims. Industry and Infrastructure: The state-owned railway is to become CFM-Infra by year-end, with infrastructure remaining under state control. New rules will also let public institutions initiate industrial parks. Trade and Innovation: Moldova-Turkey trade reached $638.7 million in the first half of 2026, up nearly 13% year on year; Moldovan exports rose 36%, as officials discussed new investment, including in renewable energy. Chișinău engineer Olga Fedorova has patented biodegradable packaging made from fruit and vegetable waste and plans to establish production. EU Funding and Energy: The EU released €157 million under Moldova’s Growth Plan after reform milestones. Moldova has completed 68% of its energy-sector commitments for EU accession, while market integration work continues.

Local Government Reform: Moldova’s proposed map would consolidate local administration into 273 city halls and three regions, with the government saying larger authorities could better manage resources, attract investment and deliver services. Trade and Investment: Trade with Turkey reached $638.7 million in the first half of 2026, up nearly 13% year on year; exports rose 36% to $260.6 million. Moldova is also seeking Turkish investment, particularly in renewable energy, while the new U.S. ambassador named deeper trade ties and private investment among his priorities. EU Accession: Moldova has been invited to submit negotiating positions for EU accession clusters covering the internal market and competitiveness, a step toward opening talks. Energy: Moldova has completed 68% of its commitments under the EU energy negotiating chapter. Wages and Finance: The real-sector minimum wage is set to rise 20.6% to 7,600 lei a month in 2027. Foreign currency reserves also grew by €38.22 million in September, reaching more than €5.45 billion.